Macroeconomic Linkages between Hong Kong and Mainland China pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025

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圖書標籤:

• 宏觀經濟
• 香港
• 中國大陸
• 經濟聯係
• 區域經濟
• 金融
• 貿易
• 經濟發展
• 中國經濟
• 香港經濟

　　Economic integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China is a topic of great interest among both policy circles and the academia. This book is a collection of relevant research papers of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in the past two years, which study the economic integration process between Hong Kong and the Mainland from different perspectives, including linkages through both the trade and financial market channels.

　　This volume sheds light on the important policy issues facing both Hong Kong and the Mainland, including how resilient the Hong Kong economy is against external shocks, how large portfolio capital outflows from China will be once its capital account is liberalized, and in what ways fund flows between Hong Kong and the Mainland affect Hong Kong’s monetary and financial conditions. With 11 essays, this monograph can be divided into 2 parts. Part I studies the “real” linkages between Hong Kong and the Mainland, while Part II focuses on the financial linkages. A detailed introduction written by the editors will serve as a non-technical summary of the essays.

　　The rigorous analysis in the volume is in line with the professional standards set by researchers in the major central banks, yet the style is not overly technical, and should be accessible to readers with a general background in economics, social and political sciences.

Foreword —Joseph YAM

1. Introduction

2. The Macroeconomic Impact on Hong Kong of Hypothetical Mainland Shocks
—Dong HE, Chang SHU, Raymond YIP and Wendy CHENG

3. Hong Kong’s Economic Integration and Business Cycle Synchronisation with Mainland China and the US
—Hans GENBERG, Li-gang LIU and Xiangrong JIN

4. Hong Kong’s Trade Patterns and Trade Elasticities
—Li-gang LIU, Kelvin FAN and Jimmy SHEK

5. Service Exports: The Next Engine of Growth for Hong Kong?
—Frank LEUNG, Kevin ChOW, Jessica SZETO and Dickson TAM

6. How Much of Hong Kong’s Import from Mainland China is Retained for Domestic Use?
—Frank LEUNG and Kevin CHOW

7. Cross-Border Fund Flows and Hong Kong Banks’ External Transactions vis-a-vis Mainland China
—Joanna SHI and Andrew TSANG

8. How Do Macroeconomic Developments in Mainland China Affect Hong Kong’s Short-term Interest Rates?
—Dong HE, Frank LEUNG and Philip NG

9. Outward Portfolio Investment from Mainland China: How Much Do We Expect and How Large a Share Can Hong Kong Expect to Capture?
—Lillian CHEUNG, Kevin CHOW, Jian CHANG and Unias LI

10. Share Price Disparity in Chinese Stock Markets
—Tom FONG, Alfred WONG and Ivy YONG

11. Price Convergence between Dual-listed A and H Shares
—Wensheng PENG, Hui MIAO and Nathan CHOW

序文

　　In discharging its responsibilities of maintaining monetary and financial stability in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) relies on timely and accurate information about matters such as the flows of funds in the Hong Kong dollar market, current macroeconomic developments and outlook and the health of the banking sector. To obtain this information the staff of the HKMA continuously analyses incoming data on economic growth, price inflation, interest rates, and asset prices; maintains close contacts with actors in financial markets; and examines the activities of the financial institutions over which it has regulatory responsibility.

　　One of the functions of our economic research is to provide background analysis that allows us to interpret the data we receive in a manner that is informative for an assessment of the state of monetary and financial stability. The results of this analysis are presented in research papers intended both for internal consumption and to inform the general public and researchers elsewhere about our views on the forces that determine the evolution of Hong Kong’s economy.

　　The papers collected in this volume are representative of the kind of analysis that is produced by our research staff. They examine the economic integration between Hong Kong and the Mainland and its impact on our economy through both trade and financial market channels. As our economic relations with the Mainland intensify, it is important to understand the possible implications for the stability of our linked exchange rate system, for our growth prospects, and for the development and stability of our financial markets.

　　The conclusions that can be drawn from this research help clarify a number of issues that have received considerable interest in Hong Kong. For example, it is often suggested that the strengthening of the renminbi relative to the Hong Kong dollar we have witnessed during the past two to three years will bring about significant inflationary pressures in Hong Kong due to higher prices of imports from the Mainland. One of the papers in the volume concludes that the impact is significantly weaker than commonly believed, because imports from the Mainland for domestic use are much smaller than is frequently alleged. In addition, as I have had occasion to point out in one of my Viewpoint articles, the pass-through of exchange rate changes to domestic prices is much less than one-for-one.*

　　Another example where thorough analysis calls into question widely held perceptions relates to the synchronisation of business cycle fluctuations in Hong Kong and the Mainland. In the chapter entitled “Hong Kong’s Economic Integration and Business Cycle Synchronisation with Mainland China and the US” the authors document that while it is indeed true that co-movements of business cycles in Hong Kong and the Mainland have increased steadily since the 1990s, this is mostly due to the common influence of the US on both economies. It follows that the link of the Hong Kong dollar with the US dollar continues to be well supported by economic fundamentals. Other chapters in the volume deal with the increasingly important financial linkages between the Mainland and Hong Kong, showing, among other things, the potential importance of our market for portfolio capital outflows from the Mainland once restrictions on these movements are reduced further, and that Mainland-related factors have an impact on the deviations ofour short-term interest rates from the corresponding US dollar rates.

　　As I noted at the outset, the availability of in-depth analysis exemplified by the papers included in this volume is important for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in carrying out its mandate to preserve monetary and financial stability in Hong Kong. I hope that readers will find the papers useful also as a guide to how the HKMA views the relationships and forces that determine the evolution of the Hong Kong economy, and that this volume will encourage other researchers to carry out similar studies thus contributing to a healthy discussion of the important economic issues that affect us all.

Joseph YAM

Chief Executive

Hong Kong Monetary Authority

* Exchange rate pass-through to domestic inflation. 3 April, 2008.

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這本書的題目《Macroeconomic Linkages between Hong Kong and Mainland China》光是看書名，就讓我這個在颱灣生活、時常關注兩岸經濟動態的讀者感到相當好奇。香港和中國大陸之間，經濟上的聯係嚮來都是一個龐大且復雜的話題，兩者之間的互動模式、影響深度，以及這種聯動對各自乃至區域經濟的宏觀影響，都牽動著許多人的心。特彆是在近幾年，隨著中國大陸經濟體量的不斷壯大，以及“一國兩製”框架下的某些演變，香港的角色和定位也發生瞭不少變化。我一直想深入瞭解，在這張巨大的經濟網絡中，究竟有哪些關鍵的脈絡？它們是如何編織在一起的？又在哪些層麵彼此牽製、相互促進？這本書的齣現，似乎提供瞭一個深入剖析這些問題的絕佳契機。我期待它能撥開迷霧，為我呈現一個清晰、細緻的宏觀圖景，讓我能夠更好地理解我們所處的區域經濟環境，以及未來可能的發展趨勢。尤其是我很想知道，書中是否會觸及一些具體的政策傳導機製，例如貨幣政策、財政政策的跨境影響，或是資本流動、貿易往來如何塑造瞭這種宏觀聯係。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

《Macroeconomic Linkages between Hong Kong and Mainland China》這個題目，立刻勾起瞭我對香港和中國大陸之間經濟關係的種種聯想。我記得小時候，香港一直是那個遙不可及的“東方之珠”，是改革開放初期大陸學習和憧憬的對象。那時候，香港就像一個連接中國大陸與世界的窗口，它的經濟繁榮和自由市場經驗，給大陸帶來瞭很多啓示。而隨著時間的推移，大陸的經濟實力越來越強，香港的角色似乎也在悄然發生變化。書中是否會探討這種角色的演變？比如，香港作為國際金融中心的地位，與人民幣國際化的進程之間存在怎樣的聯係？大陸的龐大市場和資本，又是如何影響香港的金融業發展？我特彆關心的是，這種“聯係”是否意味著一種雙嚮奔赴，還是其中一方的主導性更強？書中能否提供一些曆史性的視角，幫助我們理解這種經濟聯係是如何從無到有、從弱到強、從單嚮到雙嚮的？對於我這樣的讀者來說，一本能夠梳理清楚這種復雜曆史進程的書，將非常有價值，它能幫助我們撥開眼前的迷霧，理解當下，也預判未來。

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《Macroeconomic Linkages between Hong Kong and Mainland China》這個書名，讓我眼前一亮，因為這正是我一直以來非常關注的一個議題。作為一名在颱灣的讀者，我們常常能夠感受到中國大陸和香港經濟動態對我們自身經濟環境的影響。這本書的題目，直接點齣瞭這種“聯動”的核心，這讓我對接下來的內容充滿瞭期待。我希望這本書能夠深入探討的是，這種宏觀經濟上的聯係，是如何具體體現在貿易、投資、金融服務等各個層麵的。例如，中國大陸的産業升級和消費升級，對香港的商品和服務齣口有什麼樣的影響？反過來，香港的國際金融中心地位，又是如何吸引瞭大陸的企業和資本，並促進瞭中國大陸的金融市場發展？更重要的是，我想知道書中是否會分析，在“一國兩製”的框架下，香港的獨特地位在維持和發展這種經濟聯係中起到瞭怎樣的作用？以及，這種聯係的未來走嚮，又會受到哪些地緣政治、政策調整等宏觀因素的影響？我期待這本書能夠提供一個全麵而深入的分析，幫助我們更清晰地理解這三方之間錯綜復雜的經濟關係。

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聽到《Macroeconomic Linkages between Hong Kong and Mainland China》這個書名，我腦海裏浮現的是一幅宏大的經濟地圖，上麵密密麻麻地布滿瞭各種連接綫，代錶著資本流、信息流、商品流以及政策傳導。我一直覺得，香港和中國大陸之間的經濟關係，就像是一個精密的齒輪係統，每一個齒輪的轉動都會影響到其他齒輪的運行。這本書的書名，恰好點齣瞭這種“聯動”的關鍵。我期待它能深入挖掘的，不僅僅是簡單的經濟數據上的關聯，而是更深層次的機製性聯係。例如，在貨幣政策層麵，香港的聯係匯率製度與人民幣的匯率形成機製之間，是否存在某種微妙的互動？在金融市場層麵，香港作為離岸人民幣市場的中心，它在人民幣國際化過程中扮演瞭怎樣的角色，又受到瞭哪些來自大陸的宏觀調控影響？此外，對於房地産市場、勞動力市場等微觀層麵的經濟活動，它們又如何在宏觀經濟的框架下，與大陸産生韆絲萬縷的聯係？我希望這本書能夠提供一個係統性的分析框架，讓我們能夠理解這些復雜的相互作用，而不是停留在錶麵的數字遊戲。

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讀到《Macroeconomic Linkages between Hong Kong and Mainland China》這個書名，我的第一反應是，這本書會不會像某些學術論文一樣，充斥著枯燥的圖錶和晦澀的術語？我並非經濟學專業的科班齣身，雖然平時對經濟新聞略有關心，但對於過於理論化、數據化的內容，常常感到有些吃力。我更希望讀到的是能夠讓我理解“為什麼”和“怎麼樣”的書，能夠解釋清楚香港和中國大陸經濟聯係的背後邏輯，以及這些聯係是如何隨著時間和時代發展而變化的。例如，過去香港扮演的角色和現在是否有根本性的不同？中國大陸經濟的快速發展，又是如何改變瞭與香港的經濟關係？書中是否能夠提供一些案例分析，或者通過一些生動的描述，讓我能夠更直觀地感受到這種宏觀層麵的互動？我擔心的是，如果這本書過於側重模型和數據，而忽略瞭現實世界的復雜性和動態性，那麼它對我而言的價值就會大打摺扣。我希望這本書能夠有一種“講故事”的敘事方式，即便是在討論宏觀經濟，也能讓我感受到其中蘊含的人性、策略和博弈。