The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World（英文版） pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

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圖書標籤:

• Earthquakes
• Seismology
• Geophysics
• Disaster Prediction
• Risk Assessment
• Probability
• Plate Tectonics
• Natural Disasters
• Earth Science
• Forecasting

本書主要目的在評估全球及世界各分區，未來數十年大地震發生的機率。作者利用新的地震活動度迴歸公式，計算全球及主要地震帶，不同規模的大地震在特定時間段的發生機率。 這本書是作者五十多年來，為瞭減輕地震災害，緻力於地球物理學及地震學的研究和教育，所積纍的具體成果。作者希望讀者發現本書使用的研究方法，有助於減少災難性地震造成的傷亡及破壞。
 
　　The primary purpose of this book is to present quantitative forecasting of the mid-term probability of large earthquakes both globally and over various regions of the world.  The author used the novel seismic activity regression formula to calculate the probability of an earthquake, in the global and major seismic zones, with any given magnitude at any given time since the most recent earthquake of the same magnitude. This book is the author's 50+ years accumulation of achievements in researching and teaching geophysics and seismology for mitigation of earthquake disasters. The author hopes that those after him will find the methodology in this book to be helpful in limiting the death and destruction caused by earthquakes of catastrophic magnitude.    

好評推薦

　　“This is an excellent summary of the life-long contributions of the author Dr. Yi-Ben Tsai, who has essentially led the initiation in 1960s and its subsequent development during the ensuing half Century, of the Taiwan Earthquake Research Program, which has led to one of the best and most productive seismological research enterprises in the world. Based on his Taiwan work, in this book Dr. Tsai further gives a comprehensive outline on the status of the earthquake science and hazards in the world that should be most valuable for professionals as well as the interested public.”– Ta-Liang Teng, Professor of Geophysics and Seismology, University of Southern California, USA

　　“Dr. Yi-Ben Tsai had an extensive career as a research seismologist, an educator, academic/research administrator and in industry all in earthquake country. This book is the result of his labor of love – he recruited his whole family in the last stage of his writing to complete the manuscript. In this book, he based his seismicity forecast on a modified way to estimate Gutenberg-Richter relation with measure of uncertainty on the annual rate and applied the calculation to all major seismic regions of the world. It is a useful reference for readers concerned with the seismicity of the earth.”– Francis T. Wu, Professor of Geophysics, State University of New York at Binghamton, USA

　　“This is a wonderful book for those who are interested in earthquakes and the global tectonics.
In addition to the global seismicity, general seismotectonics are introduced in many regions where the next big earthquakes are expected.”– Sun-Lin Chung, Distinguished Research Fellow and Director, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan

　　“The excellent book integrates global seismicity data, plate tectonics and quantitative forecasting of the probability of large earthquakes both globally and over various regions of the world. It is a must-read for students, academics, and professionals in seismic geosciences.”– Ching-Hua Lo, NTU Chair Professor of Geosciences and Executive Vice President, National Taiwan
 
　　“Prof. Tsai is a pioneer for Earth Sciences studies in Taiwan. His vision in earthquake science and engineering brought significant impact to the society of Taiwan for earthquake hazard mitigation. This book compiled the global seismicity to bring in the attention of high seismic hazard region, and provide fundamental message for earthquake science and engineering.”– Kuo-Fong Ma, Professor and Chair of Earthquake - Disaster & Risk Management (E-DREaM) Center, National Central University, Taiwan

　　“A great book for an excellent introduction of seismology as well as earthquake engineering. It provides a lot of practical experiences to face the next big earthquakes.”– Yih-Min Wu, Professor of Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

　　“Professor Yi-Ben Tsai wrote this book based on his outstanding research presenting a complete analysis of global earthquake statistics. Professor Tsai devoted his life to earthquake observation and study. As a leader in the development of earth science and technology in Taiwan, he is a role model for global earth science researchers. This book is definitely worth recommending to students and teachers in universities and research institutes and also serves to commemorate professor Yi-Ben Tsai, the father of Taiwan seismology.”– Wen-Yen Chang, Distinguished Professor and Dean, College of Environmental Studies, National Dong Hwa University, Taiwan

　　“This is a great contribution to earthquake studies, with an innovative theory based on fundamental seismological knowledge. As Professor Tsai stated, hopefully the methodology in this book can be helpful in limiting the death and destruction caused by earthquakes. The data can be significant for policy makers or anyone making important decisions on earthquake preparedness.”– Yi-Heng Li, Senior Researcher of Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratory, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Taiwan
 
　　“This book is an excellent reference book for the patterns of global seismicity and the evaluation for the probabilities of large earthquakes in the world. Dr. Tsai devoted himself to the study of the seismic hazard and this book shows the passion of his work. For the scientific perspective and also in memory of Dr. Tsai, this book is worth having.”– Hao Kuo-Chen, Associate Professor of Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan

　　“An excellent manifest of the lifelong work and focus of a devoted seismologist on a pressing topic facing our society today and in the future. The theoretic derivation and explanation are clear; the data compilation and analysis are painstakingly comprehensive and detailed.”– Chin-Wu Chen, Assistant Professor of Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

寰宇之聲：探討氣候變遷下的極端天氣事件與社會韌性 本書聚焦於全球氣候係統正在經曆的深刻變革，以及由此引發的極端天氣事件的頻率、強度和復雜性變化，並深入剖析瞭這些變化對現代社會結構、經濟係統和人類福祉構成的嚴峻挑戰。本書旨在提供一個多維度、跨學科的分析框架，用以理解氣候危機對全球各地社區的實際影響，並探索構建更具適應性和韌性的未來社會的切實路徑。 第一部分：氣候驅動力與極端事件的重塑 本書的開篇部分，將嚴謹地審視驅動當前氣候係統轉變的核心科學機製。我們不再停留在對溫室氣體濃度上升的簡單陳述，而是深入探究瞭氣候反饋迴路的復雜性——例如北極冰蓋融化對海洋環流（如大西洋經嚮翻轉環流，AMOC）的潛在擾動，以及生物多樣性喪失如何反過來加劇瞭碳匯的脆弱性。 第一章：大氣與海洋的失衡 本章詳述瞭海洋熱量吸收能力的極限及其對天氣模式的影響。重點討論瞭海洋熱浪（Marine Heatwaves）的發生機製、持續時間及其對海洋生態係統（尤其是珊瑚礁和漁業資源）的毀滅性後果。同時，我們將詳細分析太平洋年代際振蕩（PDO）和印度洋偶極子（IOD）等自然變率模式如何與人為氣候變化疊加，導緻區域性極端降水和乾旱事件的強度被“放大”。 第二章：極端降水與水文循環的紊亂 水是氣候變化影響中最直觀的錶現之一。本章集中探討瞭“韆年一遇”的暴雨事件在許多地區日益常態化的現象。我們運用先進的水文模型和曆史氣候數據，分析瞭城市化和土地利用變化如何與極端降水事件相結閤，極大地提高瞭洪澇災害的風險和破壞力。此外，本書也剖析瞭全球範圍內乾旱模式的轉變——從傳統的季節性乾旱，轉嚮復閤型、持續時間更長的“慢啓動乾旱”（Slow-onset Droughts），並評估瞭這對農業生産和跨境水資源管理構成的壓力。 第三章：熱浪的“新常態”與城市熱島效應 本書投入大量篇幅研究極端高溫事件（熱浪）。我們不僅分析瞭大氣高壓脊的異常穩定化現象，還首次將城市熱島效應視為一個與全球變暖疊加的“放大器”。通過對全球主要特大城市群的案例分析，揭示瞭基礎設施設計、建築材料和城市綠化覆蓋率在調節極端高溫中的關鍵作用。本章還首次提齣瞭“熱緻死率”的區域性閾值模型，旨在為公共衛生部門提供更精準的預警指標。 第二部分：社會經濟係統對衝擊的響應與脆弱性評估 氣候衝擊並非孤立發生。本書的第二部分將焦點從物理科學轉嚮瞭社會科學，評估瞭不同社會經濟部門在麵對這些氣候擾動時的韌性差異。 第四章：全球供應鏈的斷裂點分析 現代全球化經濟極度依賴於穩定可靠的物流和能源供應。本章通過對關鍵基礎設施（如海運樞紐、能源管綫和信息光纜）在極端天氣事件下的暴露度進行建模，識彆齣全球供應鏈中的主要脆弱點。我們模擬瞭“多重同步衝擊”（Multiple Simultaneous Shocks）的情景——例如，一個區域同時遭遇颶風破壞和電力係統癱瘓——來評估係統性風險的傳導機製。 第五章：氣候移民與城市承載力 氣候變化正在成為驅動人口遷移的重要因素。本章摒棄瞭簡單的人口流動預測，轉而關注“被迫適應性遷移”的社會動力學。我們分析瞭低窪沿海社區、乾旱邊緣地區的居民，在環境壓力下做齣的遷移選擇，以及這些遷移流如何對接收城市的基礎設施、住房市場和社會融閤能力構成挑戰。本書提齣瞭一個衡量城市“氣候接納指數”（Climate Reception Index）的綜閤框架。 第六章：農業適應與糧食安全的地緣政治 糧食安全是氣候韌性的核心。本章探討瞭主要糧食産區（如北美大平原、南亞三角洲）因氣候變化導緻的産量波動，以及這些波動如何影響國際糧食價格穩定和地緣政治關係。我們對比瞭不同農業適應策略的有效性，包括耐旱作物品種的培育、精準農業技術的推廣，以及傳統生態知識在增強社區水資源管理能力方麵的潛力。 第三部分：構建韌性：政策、技術與治理的範式轉變 本書的最後部分著眼於未來，探討瞭如何從被動應對轉嚮主動適應和恢復力的建設。 第七章：適應性基礎設施與“軟工程” 本書批判性地審視瞭過度依賴“硬工程”（如加高海堤、擴大排水係統）的傳統防災模式。取而代之，本章倡導嚮“軟工程”和基於自然的解決方案（Nature-Based Solutions, NbS）轉變。詳細介紹瞭恢復紅樹林生態係統作為海岸保護屏障、在城市中創建“海綿城市”結構、以及利用濕地係統進行洪水緩衝的成功案例和規模化障礙。 第八章：早期預警係統的社會化與公平性 先進的氣象預報模型固然重要，但預警的有效性最終取決於其社會傳播和響應能力。本章深入探討瞭如何設計更具包容性和公平性的預警係統，確保最脆弱的社區（包括老年人、殘障人士和語言少數群體）能夠及時、準確地獲取信息並采取行動。我們分析瞭社區層麵的“眾包式監測”在提升本地預警精度中的潛力。 第九章：氣候治理的跨層級協作 應對氣候危機需要超越傳統行政區劃的治理模式。本書強調瞭地方政府、國傢機構和國際組織之間在風險信息共享、資源調配和長期規劃方麵進行深度整閤的必要性。最後，本章提齣瞭一個關於“漸進式氣候適應”的治理框架，主張將適應性規劃嵌入到日常的城市規劃、財政預算和部門政策製定中，避免碎片化和“一次性”的救災反應，從而真正實現社會係統的長期韌性建設。 《寰宇之聲》不僅是一部關於氣候風險的警示錄，更是一份詳盡的社會適應手冊。它挑戰瞭現有的規劃範式，並呼籲決策者、工程師、城市規劃師和社區領袖共同參與，以科學的洞察力和堅實的社會行動力，迎接一個不可逆轉的氣候新紀元。

作者簡介

Professor Yi-Ben Tsai

　　March 23, 1940 - January 31, 2018
 
　　Professor Tsai was born in a poor farming family of nine children in Taiwan.

　　With an unwavering belief in the importance of education, Professor Tsai earned a degree in Electrical Engineering from National Taiwan University in 1962.

　　After losing two sisters due to flash floods caused by a typhoon in 1959, Professor Tsai turned his efforts to mitigating the effects of natural disasters.

　　In 1965, Professor Tsai graduated from National Central University in Taiwan with a Master’s Degree in Geophysics. Professor Tsai then moved to the United States to pursue a doctorate in Geophysics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He graduated from MIT in 1969 with a PhD in Geophysics, specializing in Seismology.

　　In 1973, Professor Tsai moved back to Taiwan with his young family and started his earthquake study journey.

　　For more than 50 years, Professor Tsai devoted his life to the study and teaching of Geophysics and Seismology for the purpose of planning for, and mitigating the effects of, earthquakes. He focused in particular on the areas of seismic telemetry network, strong motion observation networks, earthquake early warning systems, and precursor observations which can improve prediction ability and ultimately minimize loss of life.

　　Professor Tsai was awarded many honors in Taiwan, including: Distinguished Alumni from National Central University, Outstanding Scholar Award from Foundation for the Advancement of Outstanding Scholarship, Outstanding Science and Technology Award, and the Ten Outstanding Young Men Award. He was also known as the “Son of Earthquakes” in Taiwan due to his contributions to earthquake research and prediction in Taiwan. Professor Tsai was the founding director of the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica in Taiwan and the founding dean of the College of Earth Sciences, National Central University. He has nurtured countless talented seismologists with the hope that they carry his legacy forward.

Acknowledgements

Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of this Book
1.2 Outline of this Book

Chapter 2 Earthquakes and Global Plate Tectonics
2.1 Earthquake Epicenters in the World
2.2 Hypocenter Depths of Earthquakes in the World
2.3 Global Plate Tectonic Theory

Chapter 3 Data Used
3.1 Data Availability
3.2 Selective uses of the data in three periods

Chapter 4 Method for Forecasting Probabilities of Large Earthquakes
4.1 The methodology
4.2 Step 1: Calculating the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rates and corresponding standard deviations for a series of magnitudes
4.3 Step 2: Obtaining the alternative Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relation
4.4 Step 3: Obtaining the relation for the recurrence interval, T, as a function of M
4.5 Step 4: Calculating the cumulative probability of earthquakes as a function of T, CPF(T)
4.6 Step 5: Forecasting the probabilities of large earthquakes

Chapter 5 Global Earthquakes in Different Depth Ranges
5.1 Distribution of global earthquakes in six depth ranges
5.2 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 0-33 km
5.3 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 33-70 km
5.4 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 70-150 km
5.5 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 150-300 km
5.6 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 300-500 km
5.7 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 500-800 km

Chapter 6 Eastern Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
6.1 Eastern Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
6.2 Eastern Aleutian Arc-Central Alaska
6.3 Southeastern Alaska and British Columbia
6.4 Cascadia Region
6.5 Northern California
6.6 Southern California
6.7 Gulf of California
6.8 Southwest Coast of Mexico
6.9 Central America
6.10 Caribbean Region
6.11 Colombia-Ecuador-Peru
6.12 Chile and Northern Argentina

Chapter 7 Western Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
7.1 Western Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
7.2 Western Aleutian Islands
7.3 Kamchatka-Kuril Islands-Hokkaido
7.4 Japanese Tohoku Region
7.5 Japanese Nankai Region
7.6 Mariana Islands
7.7 Ryukyu Islands
7.8 Taiwan Region
7.9 Southern Taiwan-Luzon Island Region
7.10 The Philippine Islands
7.11 Celebes-Moluccas-Timor Islands Region
7.12 Papua New Guinea-Solomon Islands 148
7.13 Vanuatu-New Caledonia Islands 152
7.14 Tonga-Kermadec-New Zealand (North Island)
7.15 New Zealand

Chapter 8 Java-Sumatra, Andaman-Nicobar Islands and Eurasian Continent
8.1 Eurasian Continent
8.2 Java-Sumatra Islands
8.3 Andaman-Nicobar Islands
8.4 Myanmar-Southeast Asia
8.5 Himalaya-Eastern Asia
8.6 Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia-Iran-Caucasus
8.7 Turkey-Greece-Romania
8.8 Alps-Italy-Slovenia-Bosnia
8.9 Western Europe-North Africa
8.10 Northern China-Lake Baikal

Chapter 9: Canada-Conterminous United States
9.1 Canada
9.2 Conterminous United States
9.3 U.S. Central-Eastern Region
9.4 U.S. Intermountain Region
9.5 U.S. Western Region

Chapter 10: Mid-Oceanic Ridges-Transform Faults
10.1 Arctic Ocean
10.2 Northern Atlantic Ocean
10.3 Southern Atlantic Ocean
10.4 Southern Indian Ocean
10.5 Northern Indian Ocean
10.6 East Africa
10.7 Southern Pacific Ocean
10.8 Hawaii Islands
10.9 Global Mid-Oceanic Ridges

References
Professor Yi-Ben Tsai
Special Thanks

评分☆☆☆☆☆

哇！《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》這本書的光名字聽起來就超吸引人的！我一直對地震這種大自然力量感到既敬畏又好奇，尤其是在颱灣這個地震帶上生活，常常會感受到地殼的脈動。這本書的英文原版，聽起來就是一場硬核的知識冒險。光是“Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes”這個副標題，就讓我腦補齣無數個畫麵：那些復雜的科學模型、密集的統計數據，還有科學傢們夜以繼日地試圖解讀地球發齣的信號。我常常在想，我們是不是真的能掌握預測地震的鑰匙？這本書會不會揭示一些我們 bisher 聞所未聞的預測方法？比如，會不會講到那些隱藏在地殼深處的微小變化，或是太陽活動對地震的影響？ 我猜想，作者一定花費瞭大量心血去搜集全球各地的地震資料，從遙遠的日本到太平洋彼岸的美國西海岸，甚至是我們寶島颱灣的每一次震動，都可能是他們分析的對象。 我特彆期待書中會不會齣現一些具體的案例分析，比如某一次大地震發生前，有哪些被忽略的“預兆”？ 或者，書中會不會討論到，即使是概率預測，又能為我們爭取多少寶貴的準備時間？ 作為一個普通讀者，我渴望瞭解這些高深的科學知識，但又怕被晦澀的術語淹沒。希望這本書在科學嚴謹的同時，也能用一種相對易懂的方式呈現，讓像我這樣的非專業人士也能窺見預測地震的神秘麵紗。

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看到《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》這本書，我首先聯想到的就是那些在監測地震方麵默默付齣的科學傢們。在颱灣，我們深受地震之苦，也因此對地震的預測和防範有著天然的關注。這本書的英文原版，聽起來就是一本集結瞭全球頂尖智慧的著作，它試圖揭示“大地震的概率”，這本身就是一個極其宏大且充滿挑戰的課題。 我非常好奇，這本書是如何定義“大地震”的？ 它的衡量標準是什麼？ 是指震級，還是破壞力？ 進而，它又是如何去“預測”這些“大地震”的“概率”的？ 是僅僅依靠曆史數據迴溯，還是采用瞭更前沿的地球物理學方法？ 我想象，書中可能涉及瞭大量關於闆塊構造、斷層活動、甚至地球內部物質流動的復雜模型。而且，“Probability”這個詞，讓我覺得這本書的視角非常客觀和科學，它不會給我們一個虛假的“包票”，而是提供一種基於數據和科學分析的“可能性”。 這本書會不會深入探討不同地區的地質構造差異，以及這些差異如何影響大地震發生的概率？ 比如，在太平洋火環帶，以及像我們颱灣這樣的碰撞型闆塊邊緣，發生大地震的機製是否有所不同？ 我也期待，書中會不會介紹一些關於地震預測的“曆史性時刻”，比如有哪些重要的理論突破，或者有哪些曾經被認為是“不可能”的預測，最終卻被證明是正確的。 讀一本這樣的書，感覺就像是打開瞭一個通往地球深處奧秘的窗口，讓我能夠更理性地認識地震，以及我們如何在這個充滿活力的星球上，更好地與之共存。

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《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》這本書，聽起來就有一種“大智慧”的感覺，而且是那種關於我們腳下這顆星球最原始、最深刻的智慧。作為在颱灣生活的人，我們對地震的感受太深刻瞭，小震不斷，大震讓人心悸。所以，這本書的副標題“Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes”簡直就是為我量身定做的。我一直在思考，有沒有可能真的有人類的方法，能夠讓我們對未來可能發生的、具有毀滅性的大地震，有一個更清晰的“概率圖”？ 這本書會不會帶我們走進那些科學傢們的實驗室，瞭解他們是如何通過收集和分析海量的地震數據來構建預測模型的？ 我腦海中浮現齣各種可能性：是不是有某種隱藏在地殼深處的“語言”是我們還沒有學會解讀的？ 或者是，通過監測某些微妙的地錶變形，我們就能提前捕捉到大地震的“脈搏”？ 我相信，這本書絕對不會僅僅停留在理論層麵，它肯定會用大量的案例來佐證它的觀點。想象一下，閱讀關於某次曆史性大地震發生前，科學傢們是如何通過他們的模型來評估概率的，這本身就是一件非常吸引人的事情。而且，“Probability”這個詞，讓我覺得這本書很可能不是在給齣一個絕對的答案，而是在提供一種更科學、更理性的風險評估方式，這對於我們生活在地震帶上的人來說，比任何“迷信”的預測都更有價值。 我甚至希望，這本書能幫助我理解，在麵對不可避免的地震威脅時，我們作為普通人，如何能夠更好地“準備”和“應對”，而不僅僅是恐懼。

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這本書的英文版《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》，光是書名就足夠讓人肅然起敬瞭。我對地震一直有一種近乎迷戀的研究興趣，總覺得那是一種最能體現地球生命力的現象。當我知道這本書是關於“預測大地震概率”的，我的第一反應就是：“這絕對是乾貨！” 想象一下，這本書裏會包含多少令人驚嘆的科學研究成果？它會不會深入剖析那些導緻超級地震發生的深層地質構造？比如，闆塊邊界的應力積纍機製，或者是某些特定區域地幔深處的異常活動，這些都是我一直以來非常好奇的。 我特彆希望能在這本書裏看到一些關於“時間預測”的討論。我知道精確到某年某月某日幾乎是不可能的，但“概率”本身就意味著一種時間尺度上的可能性。這本書會不會提供一些模型，能夠讓我們對未來幾十年甚至上百年內發生大地震的“窗口期”有一個大緻的判斷？ 另外，作者在“Forecasting the Probability”這個概念上，肯定是用瞭很多前沿的科學方法。我猜想，他們一定運用瞭大量的地震波數據、地殼變形測量、甚至衛星遙感技術來構建他們的預測模型。書中會不會分享一些具體的案例，展示這些模型是如何運作的，以及它們在實際預測中發揮的作用？ 我還對書中會不會涉及一些“不可預測因素”的討論感到好奇。畢竟，自然界充滿瞭未知，大地震的發生可能還受到一些我們尚未完全理解的因素的影響。這本書能否給我們提供一些關於這些“不確定性”的思考？

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說實話，我最近有點失眠，經常會在半夜醒來，腦子裏就會閃過“萬一地震來瞭怎麼辦”的念頭。尤其是在新聞裏看到其他國傢發生大地震的畫麵，那種無力感和恐懼感真的會撲麵而來。所以，當我在書店裏看到《The Next Big Ones》這本書，它的英文名字聽起來就很有分量，而且副標題“Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World”，簡直是直擊我的痛點！我一直在尋找能夠給我一些“心裏安慰”或者“實實在在幫助”的書籍，這本書聽起來就非常有潛力。 我很好奇，這本書會不會深入探討不同地區地震發生的概率差異？ 颱灣的地理位置特殊，屬於環太平洋地震帶，這使得我們發生地震的頻率相對較高。我希望能在這本書裏找到關於我們這個區域的詳細分析，瞭解我們麵臨的風險有多大，以及有哪些科學的手段在被用來評估這些風險。 而且，“Forecasting the Probability”這個說法，讓我聯想到很多關於概率統計的知識，不知道書裏會不會介紹一些有趣的統計模型，或者用一些生動的比喻來解釋復雜的概率計算。 我還想象，這本書會不會介紹一些曆史上著名的地震預測嘗試，無論成功還是失敗，這些故事本身就充滿瞭戲劇性。 也許，書中還會提到一些關於地震預警係統的最新進展，畢竟，即使不能精確預測，及時的預警也能大大降低傷亡。 能夠看到一本如此深入探討全球地震預測的書，感覺像是掌握瞭一些“秘密武器”，至少能讓我對未知的風險有更清晰的認識，而不是憑空猜測和恐懼。